Likelihood

Monolog by Tage Danielsson

Likelihood, eh? That most likely means something that resembles truth. However if something is likely, it isn’t really as true as truth.

Now it appears that we don’t really know if something will happen, so we have to be satisfied with calculations of probability. That’s a shame, because such calculations are not as good as knowing what will happen. Calculations just aren’t as reliable as seeing for yourself. For example such calculations can vary greatly before and after.

I mean, before Harrisburg, it was highly improbable that what happened in Harrisburg would happen, but as soon as it did, the probability happened to go up to no less than 100 percent, so it was almost so probable that it had happened. But only almost probable. That is what is so strange. It is as if they mean that what happened in Harrisburg was so completely improbable that really, it probably didn’t happen.

 















In reality, the entire Social Democratic party went and waited for over half a year to find out whether what happened in Harrisburg had or had not happened, before they could decide whether they should be of the opinion that nuclear power is as dangerous as it would be if what happened in Harrisburg had actually happened. Now they have decided at last and evidently reached the conclusion that what happened in Harrisburg didn’t happen, but that we, on the other hand, should institute much better safety measures so that it won’t happen here as well.

Of course you understand their hesitation, for such an accident occurs, according to all calculations of likelihood, just once every several thousand years, and thus of course it isn’t likely that it has already happened, but it is rather in this case more likely that it did occur in the future. And then it becomes an entirely different matter. For of course we can’t pass judgment on it now. Then. Or….?

As well, if what happened in Harrisburg really happened, contrary to expectations, then of course the likelihood that it will happen again is so extremely, ridiculously, very small, that in a way you could say that it was almost good that what happened in Harrisburg happened, if it in fact did happen. I mean then you can almost certainly say that it won’t happen again.
In any case not in Harrisburg, and certainly not at the same time as the last time.
The likelihood of a recurrence is so small that it is negligible. This invites one to believe that it doesn’t exist, except just a little.

Now this is really complicated for the ordinary person, so really there is no point in having a referendum about such things here. Of course, people in general think in their simple way that what happened in Harrisburg really happened. They accept it as the truth. Always tell the truth, children. That is what our parents told us. We can’t tell our children that though. We have to teach them to always tell about the likelihood - the likelihood, the whole likelihood and nothing but the likelihood.
So that they understand that what happened in Harrisburg can’t happen here, as it didn’t even happen there, which would have been much more likely, considering that it was there that it happened.